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Technical Analysis

Bespoke Weather Services - Natural Gas Flat Following In-Line EIA Storage Number


Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 6:36PM

It was a rather slow day in the natural gas market, with the April contract settling just a tick higher in a 4.3-cent range. Bearish daily balances were canceled out by mixed weather forecasts and an in-line EIA print, keeping prices mostly range-bound.

natural gas commodity weather

Later contracts along the curve were stronger through the day, with April actually being the weakest overall.

natural gas commodity weather

The result is that the J/V April/October spread went out to recent wide levels.

natural gas commodity weather

These later contracts were firm enough to help the April contract defend the $2.8 support level. Our Morning Update was "Neutral" despite slight GWDD losses overnight. We we highlighted that, "it still seems hard to break below the $2.8 level..."

natural gas commodity weather

natural gas commodity weather

Then the Energy Information Administration announced a draw of 47 bcf from storage last week, which was just 1 bcf away from our estimate of 48 bcf.

natural gas commodity weather

They also announced a 4 bcf revision lower in last week's 204 bcf draw, indicating that the draw actually should have been 200 bcf.

natural gas commodity weather

Despite the revision, the market did not move much after the EIA number, as it was seen as generally confirming current expectations. Our EIA Rapid Release highlighted we saw the number as "Neutral," which verified well, and then our Afternoon Update took a look at natural gas price risk and expected weather changes headed into the weekend. To give this report a look, and begin receiving all our detailed weather-driven analysis,Try out a 10-day free trial here

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Bespoke Weather Services is the premier integrated weather forecasting service for natural gas traders, offering actionable trade ideas and market risk profiles from live weather modeling and pricing data to identify opportunities along the natural gas strip.  We combine fundamental supply/demand and technical analysis with our weather forecasts to provide numerous research reports through the day alerting traders to what we see driving price action and how risk appears skewed moving forward.  We offer market sentiment and analysis on an intraday, daily, weekly, and seasonal basis, providing research packages for both active short-term traders and longer-term investors and portfolio managers.

Try a 10-day free trial to our unique integrated weather and natural gas-driven analysis here.

Disclaimer: Bespoke Weather Services, LLC believes all information contained in this note to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  None of the information in this post or any opinions expressed constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Bespoke Weather Services and is being posted with Bespoke Weather Services's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Bespoke Weather Services and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23269




Stocks

Edison - UK Sparks: Royal Mail Names New Chairman; Smiths Group to Spin Off Medical Business


Royal Mail has named Keith Williams chairman, replacing Les Owen after six months in the job. Williams, currently deputy chairman of the postal service, succeeds Owen on May 22 after the full-year results are released. The former chief of British Airways joined the board of Royal Mail in January last year. Owen replaced Peter Long on a short term basis after investors voted against his re-election as chairman.

Smiths Group has confirmed plans to spin-off its Smiths Medical business and separately list the company in the UK. The demerger, it says, will create “two stronger, industry-leading companies with distinct strategies and focus”. The spin-off is expected to be completed in the first half of 2020. Smiths Group is also recruiting for a chief executive officer of the new company.

Separately, Smiths reported a 2% increase in half-year underlying revenue to £1.6bn, which included a £21m boost from foreign exchange translation. Meanwhile, underlying headline operating profit was down 2% to £246m. CEO Andy Reynolds Smith reaffirmed the company’s outlook for 2019, saying he expects the company to deliver sustainable underlying revenue growth of at least 2%.

Senior Plc’s aerospace division has been officially selected by Saab to supply components for the Boeing T-X advanced pilot training system. The US Air Force selected the purpose-built aircraft and simulation system after a multi-year competition. Senior Aerospace SSP is based in California where it designs and manufactures high pressure/high temperature ducting systems.

Finally, packaging company Robinson has posted a 10% increase in full year revenue to £32.8m and an operating profit before exceptional items and amortisation of intangible assets at £1.5m, up from £1.3m in 2017. Chairman Alan Raleigh said the company expects to achieve double-digit sales growth again in 2019 and a “marked step-up in profitability, ahead of market expectations.”

Sarah Jones

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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.  Visit www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com for more information.

Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Our research is a marketing communication as defined by the FCA, this communication only contains information that is an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under COBS2.3A19(5).

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Edison and is being posted with Edison’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Edison and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23268




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (March 22)


MARKET

Chinese equities bounced back to 3100 psychological level, while signalling market divergence. With optimism for a quick U.S.-China trade deal starting to fade, stock market need a bit more to keep the good times rolling. Leisure and Light Manufacture sectors led the gains, while Agriculture and Non-bank Financial sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 801.4 billion, down 9.5% dod.

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3104.15

0.09

356.68

24.47

Shenzhen

9879.22

0.10

445.26

36.46

CSI 300

3833.80

-0.08

198.52

27.34

ChiNext

1693.87

-0.59

117.78

35.45

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Leisure

002707

Light Manufacture

601515

Downward-leading

Agriculture

002458

Non-bank Financial

000563

 

NEWS   

*China's automakers call for unified standards for internet of vehicles. Executives from China's leading automakers have called for efforts in developing infrastructure, standards and technologies related to the internet of vehicles(IoV), China daily reported Friday. (Caixin)

*EU Gives Theresa May Another Two Weeks to Avoid a No-Deal Brexit. European Union leaders staved off the threat of the U.K. crashing out of the bloc without a deal next Friday by giving Theresa May an extra two weeks to work out what to do. (Bloomberg)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


23267




Macro

Eurex: EU Offers UK Limited Breathing Space


Morning Briefing March 22nd 2018

The publication of the PMI data for France (0815GMT), Germany (0830GMT) and the Eurozone (0900GMT) is the highlight of Friday morning in Europe. In the US the release of data on existing home sales at 1400GMT and the publication of the treasury budget statement at 1800GMT will be closely watched.

In February, the manufacturing PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone continued to decline with below 50 readings of 47.6 and 49.3, respectively. These declines were recorded despite the recent improvement in Eurozone industrial production. The MNI median expects the PMIs to improve slightly in March to 48 (DE) and 49.5 (EZ), but still sub-50. However, EZ industrial production y/y has remained negative since October 2018, despite January's positive surprise.

The services PMI on the other hand was 50.2 in France, 55.3 in Germany and 52.8 in the Eurozone in the previous month. According to the MNI median the services PMI in March will be 50.6 (FR), 54.8 (DE) and 55.3 (EZ), respectively. The composite PMI in the Eurozone amounted to 51.9 in February and is expected to remain at the current level for this month.

The pace of US existing home sales is expected to rebound to a 5.11 million annual rate in February after a further decline in January. Pending home sales rebounded by 4.6% in January after six straight declines. The budget deficit in February is expected to be $227 billion.

The European Council meeting continues in Brussels where ECB President Mario Draghi also participates. At 0815GMT ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at the ECB colloquium in Frankfurt and at 0830GMT ECB Supervisory Board member Ignazio Angeloni speaks, followed by Supervisory Board Chair Andrea Enria at 1030GMT. ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch participates in a policy panel in Warsaw at 1015GMT. NY Fed Vice President Kevin Stiroh speaks in New York at 1245GMT.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

BOND SUMMARY: News feeds were dominated by Brexit news after the EU leaders unanimously agreed to delay Brexit at least until April 12. Elsewhere, the regional FI space advanced overnight. - T-Notes last trade +0.02+ at 123.14, while U.S. cash yields are trading 0.6 to 1.4bp lower across the curve, with 10-year yield sitting at 2.528%. Eurodollar contracts are trading 0.25 tick lower to 1.5 ticks higher through the reds. - JGB futures last trade at 152.98, 25 ticks above settlement, as they rallied from off, playing catch-up to the post-FOMC move in U.S. Tsys, with Japanese markets reopened after yesterday's national holiday. Yields are trading 0.8 to 4.1bp lower across the curve, with the 10-year yield touching the lowest levels since Nov 2016. Worth mentioning the releases of Japanese CPI and Nikkei m'fing PMI were largely shrugged off. - Aussie bond yields are trading 2.5 to 5.5bp lower across the curve. YM last seen 2.5 ticks higher at 98.605, XM trades 4.0 ticks higher at 98.160, with YM/XM -1.5 ticks at 44.50. Bills are trading 1-4 ticks higher through the reds. - Bunds -0.12 at 164.73, Bobls -0.020 at 132.570, Schatz +0.005 at 111.865

FOREX: The early part of today's Asia-Pac session saw UK PM May and her EU peers emerge from a summit, where they discussed May's request for an extension to Article 50. The EU agreed to postpone Brexit at least until Apr 12, by which time the UK must decide which of the four options on the table it wants to pursue - the current Brexit deal, a "no-deal", a long extension, or revoking Article 50. If PM May's deal is passed by lawmakers on time, the UK will leave the EU on May 22. Sterling outperformed among the G10 currencies as a result. - The Aussie underperformed at the margin, with BBG citing a trader saying that AUD weakness was mostly due to sales against NZD. Kiwi was the second best G10 currency. - JPY showed some strength, as the Nikkei 225 slid into negative territory, but this proved short lived. Domestic data releases were largely ignored by JPY, with the Nikkei m'fing PMI printing unch. at 48.9 and national core CPI coming at 0.7% Y/Y, undershooting exp. and still far away from the BoJ's 2% target. - Focus today turns to global flash PMI data, as well as Canadian CPI and retail sales. Elsewhere, ECB's de Guindos & Angeloni are due to speak.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (M9) MARCH 8/12 HIGHS THE KEY

Bund futures continued to push higher on Thursday, reaching new highs for the current contract. However, the March 8/12 highs of 164.74 proved a drag. A close below this level would return the outlook to neutral. However, a close this level would reignite upside momentum and open the Feb highs on the continuation chart. Bears initially need to break back below yesterday’s low of 164.32 ahead of the 21-dma and Wednesday’s low at 163.87/84. A break below here would see the March 7 low at 163.43 come into focus.

EUROSTOXX50: PARING SOME GAINS

After trading through the 150% retracement from 2908.70-3244.98 at 3213.12 on Tuesday and reaching its highest level since October, Eurostoxx pared some of its gains on Wed before hitting up trend channel support yesterday. Bulls need to close above 3400 again to shift the focus to the Sep 27 high at 3452.41. Bears look to close below uptrend support which comes in at 3343.50 to open the 21-dma at 3316.52.

Eurex Futures Market Close

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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23266




Technical Analysis

Cotton (CT) Breaks 9 Month Downchannel Resistance


Cotton (CT) surged more than 2% yesterday as it broke above a 9 month downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart).  CT is due for some healthy profittaking today after briefly breaking above upchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart) and a near 3 month uptrend resistance (on the daily chart).  Bulls will increasingly buy on any notable dip back towards this week's range high prior to yesterday's breakout.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking at entering long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for mid next week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

 

Cotton (ICE CT May19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

Click here for today's technical analysis on Raw Sugar, Corn

 

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Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23265




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