IB Traders Insight


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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (September.28)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed lower today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 2987.86 points. The A share market edged down with lower volume, with support of half year moving average line. Steel and auto sectors led the gains; while builder and travel sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was 305.2 bn yuan, down 12.8% dod.

 

CLOSE

%CHG

VOL (bn yuan)

%YTD

SH Composite

2987.86

-0.34

116.4

-15.58

SZ Component

10467.16

-0.09

188.8

-17.35

CSI300

3230.89

-0.3

103.2

-13.40

ChiNext

2139.63

-0.05

51.0

-21.16

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Steel

000409

Auto

002085

Downward-leading

Builder

002663

Travel

600258

 

NEWS

*Chinese tourists can use China's largest third party payment platform Alipay at ten overseas airports from next month. Ant Financial Services Group, an affiliate of e-commerce giant Alibaba and owner of Alipay, announced on Monday the ten airports are in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, New Zealand, and Thailand; the top travel destinations for tourists from the Chinese Mainland. This is only the first step of Alipay's going global project, said Peng Yijie, the vice president of Ant Financial's international business, as the company has reached cooperation agreements with more international hubs. It is expected that Chinese consumers will be able to use Alipay at 30 airports outside the Chinese mainland in the future. (China Daily)

 

FUND FLOW

 

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This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


10975




Macro

European Market Outlook: Central bank speakers in focus


Morning Briefing September 28th 2016


Wednesday throws up a busy data day and a session loaded with central bank officials speaking.

The European calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the publication of the German GFK Consumer Climate data. At 0645GMT, the French consumer sentiment and housing starts and permits data will be released.

ECB President Mario Draghi delivers the welcome address at the First ECB Annual Research Conference, in Frankfurt, starting at 0800GMT.

At the same time, Italy's ISTAT publishes the latest Business and Consumer confidence data.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik will speak at 0805GMT.

The US calendar gets underway at 1230GMT, with the release of the MBA weekly applications index.

At 1230GMT, the August durable goods new orders data will cross the wires.

Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari participates in Q&A at Institutional Investor Conference in Minneapolis, Minn, starting at 1245GMT.

ECB President Mario Draghi will hold an exchange of views on "Current developments in the euro area" at German Bundestag, in Berlin, starting at 1245GMT. He will speak to the press at 1500GMT.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives her semi-annual testimony to House Financial Services Committee on the Fed's "Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System", starting at 1400GMT.

At 1415GMT, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard will give welcoming remarks at the Community Banking in the 21st Century conference in St. Louis.

The latest US DOE weekly crude oil stocks are expected to be published at1430GMT.

At 1600GMT, Minister of Finance of the Hellenic Republic Prof. Euclid Tsakalotos speaks at the Bridge Forum Dialogue conference, in Luxembourg. Bundesbank Board Member Dr. Andreas Dombret speaks on occasion of 100th anniversary of Federal Association of public banks, in Berlin, starting at 1700GMT.

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans will give the keynote address at the Community Banking in the 21st Century conference in St. Louis, starting at 1730GMT. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy in Cleveland, Ohio, followed by audience and media Q&A from 2030GMT.  

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


FOREX: It has been a relatively subdued day in Asia so far with little in the way of data and no US Presidential debate to fixate upon. The US Dollar is slightly better bid across the board today with the DXY opening at 95.487 and drifting to a high so far of 95.581, last at 95.568. The S&P500 futures are down a little (-0.20%). Canadian government approved Petronas-led liquefied natural gas plant project. UsdCad did a brief dip below 1.3200 and bounced back. Oil got as low as $44.20 on back of comments from Iran but has recovered to $45 now. We broke the 20DMA at 1.3235 yesterday but we were unable to exploit the break and we saw good stops once we fell back under 1.3200. China Sept Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment came in a little above expectation (115.2 Vs 115.0) which provided the Aussie with a little boost. The Aussie has traded a $0.7661-81 range so far. The Euro and Cable are both looking heavy as the USD weighs across the board. Euro has traded $1.1203-19 and Cable $1.2994-1.3025.

US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly weaker on the back of Japanese stocks despite Topix shares going ex-dividend today resulting in the Topix falling 1.67%. Also the market is perhaps seeing profit taking after Tuesday's gains as banking woes in Europe continue, while the US Presidential election is still a close race despite Clinton's 'win' on Monday evening. Currently the Dec'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading down 3.75 points at 2,149.00, the Dec'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading down 6.5 points at 4,854.25, while the Dec'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading down 29 points at 18,110.

US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks posted solid gains Tuesday as risk appetite improved modestly in the wake of the US presidential debate. The DJIA closed up 0.74% at 18,228.30 and the Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.92% at 5,305.712. The Nasdaq Composite posted a new record high of 5,342.875 Sept 22, before succumbing to profit-taking and paring back of positions. the S&P 500 closed up 0.64% at 2,159.93, after trading in a 2,141.55 to 2,161.13 range. At the close, the index was up 5.7% ytd and down 1.5% from the life-time high of 2,193.81 seen August 15.

US TSYS: Despite the Nikkei trading down 1.50% and taking the e-mini S&P 5.25 points lower, treasuries have done little so far in the Asian session, with cash 10's up 0.7bp and 10yr futures down 0.5 ticks. Volumes have been average with 10yr futures trading some ~$1.6 bln, while 10yr futures have traded 22.5k.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have posted hefty losses during Wednesday's morning session, weighed down by the
Topix components going ex-dividend, while concerns over the European banking sector weigh in on Japanese banks. The Nikkei has closed for lunch down 1.54% or 257.32 points at 16,426.61, while the Topix is down 1.63% or 22.03 points at 1,327.19.

GOLD: Spot gold last down $1.60 at $1,325.70 per ounce, in a $1,327.65 to $1,325.40 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market remaining under pressure after yesterday's 'win' for Clinton in the first Presidential debate resulted in risk on trade and seeing Gold close down some ~$13 or 1%. A break above $1,353 would target last month's high of $1,367.34, seen August 2. A close today below the 55-day moving average, at $1,333, as seems likely will target a return to the Sept 21 lows just under $1,308.

OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Nov'16 delivery last up $0.01 at $44.68 per barrel, after a $45.09 to $44.53 range in Asia today, with the market stabilizing after its $1.26 fall on Tuesday due to doubts continuing to grow that a deal could be struck in regards to production at the IEF meeting in Algiers. This morning the price has rallied on the back of hints from the Saudi Oil minister that a deal with Iran on restricting output is close, however final details may not be known until the November OPEC meeting, while a drawdown in API crude inventories is also supporting the market.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (Z16) Bulls Focused On 166.38-55 Region

*RES 4: 167.86 High Aug 30
*RES 3: 166.55 Low Aug 29 now resistance
*RES 2: 166.38 Low Aug 2 now resistance
*RES 1: 166.27 High Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 166.00

*SUP 1: 165.75 High Sept 26 now support
*SUP 2: 165.33 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 164.98 Low Sept 23
*SUP 4: 164.78 Hourly resistance Sept 22 now support    

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue for the contract with bulls firmly focused on the 166.38-55 region. The Bollinger top (166.11) remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through. Layers of support continue to accumulate with bears now needing a close below 165.75 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. A close below 164.98 is then needed to hint at a deeper correction with below 164.29 confirming focus on 163.36-57.

 

EUROSTOXX: 2929.44 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 3117.94 Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 3110.15 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 3101.75 High Sept 8
*RES 1: 3063.12 High Sept 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2970.84

*SUP 1: 2929.44 Low Sept 16
*SUP 2: 2921.76 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 2892.52 Low Aug 3
*SUP 4: 2807.65 High July 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: The failure by bulls to better the 3101.75 Sept high so far leaves the index looking heavy following the correction lower from 3063.12 and increases the risk for a substantial correction. Bears need a close below 2929.44 to hint at a move back to 2016 lows with below 2892.52 confirming. The 3063.12-3101.75 resistance region remains key with bulls needing a close above to target the 100-WMA (3236.95).

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


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10974




Macro

Can Robots Save the Bank of Japan?


Techno-optimist Shinzo Abe should be pushing reforms and a startup boom rather than more easy money.

 

Shinzo Abe saying “I have absolutely no worries about Japan’s demography” should worry economists - none more so than his central bank head, Haruhiko Kuroda.

Far from seeing an aging and shrinking population as a crisis, the prime minister thinks it’s a boon. The widely-held view his 127 million population will plunge below 100 million by 2050, Abe told Reuters, “paradoxically, is not an onus, but a bonus.” The real paradox is how the leader of the No. 3 economy reckons “robots, wireless sensors, and artificial intelligence” will “grow our productivity” so the size and quality of the workforce doesn’t matter anytime soon.

We’ve seen this film before - it’s called “Wall-E.” The 2008 animated Pixar flick depicts a dystopian future of technology doing all the work, while humans become useless couch potatoes. Of course, this isn’t Abe’s vision for the decades ahead, but his remedies for a fast-greying nation are just as fanciful if he doesn’t start revolutionizing Japan Inc. immediately.

One spoiler: A public debt two-and-half times an economy underwhelming in terms of growth, innovation, competitiveness and avoiding mass immigration. The disconnect between debt and the working-age population might seem less dire if not for a 1.4-children-per-woman birthrate. Even if Abe could raise it to 1.8, as he hopes, the population would still decline. Even that target is a huge “if” given his milquetoast remedies like easier access to child care and modest and unimaginative tax incentives.

Will those who rate Tokyo’s credit be patient? Investors like Jim Rogers who’ve long avoided Japanese government bonds on demographic grounds - “There will be no Japanese. Who will pay the enormous debt?,” he’s warned - get sideways looks in Tokyo. Yet it’s a valid concern.

Looked at another way, Japan is an environmentalist’s dream come true. Our planet is fragile enough, never mind in 2050 when there may be 9.7 billion humans. Japan is humankind’s laboratory for deriving greater growth, efficiency and wealth from fewer bodies. Advancements in technology and industrial processes could be a quantum leap for sustainable development.

I’d feel better if the real priority today weren’t denial. As Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda struggles to drive the economy toward inflation, he’s running into a 35 million-person-deep roadblock. Japan’s 65-plus generation isn’t buying homes, cars, Sony PlayStations or lavishing fixed incomes on fashion, pricy meals and spontaneous travel.

Let’s, for a moment, give Abe the benefit of the doubt. In May 2015, Tokyo opened a Robot Revolution Initiative Council, urging companies to “spread the use of robotics from large-scale factories to every corner of our economy and society.” This five-year government push has 200 corporate and university backers working to deepen the role of “intelligent machines” in supply chains, manufacturing, health care and construction. It aims to expand robotics sales from about $5.5 billion annually to over $20 billion by 2020. Already, Japan’s Fanuc, Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Yaskawa Electric have 50% percent of the global market in factory robots. Laboratory Japan has a 90% share in precision gears, specialized sensors and servo motors to move robotic limbs.

But Japan needs to squeeze more productivity out of today’s humans, too. That means shaking up a rigid business culture, liberalizing education, making Japan Inc. more meritocratic, scrapping seniority-based promotions and investing tens of billions of dollars more on research and development to engineer the Isaac Asimov future Abe envisions. Luckily, Japan has a couple of cushions in the shorter run. One is a still underutilized female workforce. Another: an enviable stable of skilled retirees companies can rehire at discounts to their working-age pay contracts.

That’s good for a decade, or so. The question is how Japan pays its growing debt with fewer people after that? Abe’s robots/wireless censors/AI vision sounds intriguing, but the growing 65-plus generation still poses huge challenges. And Japan’s hopes of creating a productivity generation will require a policy revolution Abe has so far avoided. A society aging as fast as Japan’s is inherently deflationary, no matter how much yen Kuroda prints. The answer, of course, is Abe accelerating structural reforms to fuel a startup boom, deregulate industry, inspire greater innovation and empower women. Any of these steps over time would do more than the BoJ’s liquidity injections.

Abe also needs to be careful what he wishes for as science fiction becomes economic fact. A 2015 report by Nomura Research Institute and Oxford’s Michael Osborne found intelligent machine could put 49% of Japan’s workforce out of jobs within 10 to 20 years. Clearly, a happy medium between productivity and mass homelessness would have to be found. Like Abe’s other big ideas, looking at a “Wall-E” inspired future sounds intriguing, but the question of how Japan gets there in time to placate Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s and aid the BoJ stares back at him.

William Pesek is Executive Editor of Barron’s Asia. Based in Tokyo, he writes Barron’s Asia’s lead column “Up & Down Asia,” which covers economics, politics, markets and social issues throughout the Asia-Pacific region. He is the author of the 2014 book “Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decades.” Before joining Barron’s, Mr. Pesek was Bloomberg View’s Asia columnist. His columns have appeared in the International Herald Tribune, the Sydney Morning Herald, the New York Post, the Straits Times, and many other publications. Follow him on Twitter @WilliamPesek.

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This article is from Barron's and is being posted with Barron’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Barron's and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10973




Macro

Market Response to US Presidential Debate


Andrew Wilkinson, Chief Market Analyst at Interactive Brokers, discusses market reaction following the first of three presidential debates between candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. 

The analysis in this video is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10972




Stocks

Will the U.S. election really matter for markets?


Russ argues that the election may have less of an impact on markets than many are expecting.

 

With the summer over and the presidential debates just around the corner, investor attention is increasingly turning to the U.S. election. In my travels and meetings, I frequently encounter two strongly held views about the election’s investment implications: First, no matter who wins there will be a market-moving increase in fiscal stimulus, and second, the election will be a source of volatility. I would question both views.

Fiscal stimulus

Many economists agree that the United States needs to shift from a reliance on monetary policy to more fiscal stimulus, but it is not clear that the political stars are aligning to do so, even though both candidates favor increased spending. At this point, the most likely election outcome appears to be a continuation of divided government, with polls showing Hilary Clinton ahead, but with a closely divided Senate and a diminished Republican majority in the House. It is not clear that a large fiscal package can emerge from this configuration. This is consistent with history; 2009 aside, the first year of an administration normally does not coincide with a big fiscal push. Since 1905, the median rise in federal spending in the first year of an administration is around 5.5%, almost identical to the other three years.

Even if spending does rise, will it matter for the stock market? While there will doubtlessly be some stocks and segments that benefit, over the past century there has been no consistent relationship between federal spending and equity returns, as defined by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nor has there historically been much of a relationship between transfer payments, i.e. direct payments to individuals through various government programs, and market returns. In short, even if the next administration can summon the will and means to ramp up government spending, there may be little discernible impact on the broader equity market.

What about the impact on interest rates? Here again, there is no consistent relationship between spending and interest rates. Looking at annual changes in federal spending against annual changes in the Fed Funds target rate, since 1956 there is no consistently significant relationship. It is just not clear that fiscal spending, even if we get it, will be the dominant theme of 2017.

Volatility

Will the election be a source of volatility? Obviously, to the extent the consensus of a Clinton win is wrong, there will be a reaction. However, once you get past the shock of a non-consensus event, markets often settle down (think of Brexit). Even if elected, will a Trump administration be able to enact many of the policies he has proposed? Given the number of seats the Republicans need to defend, absent significant coattails the Republicans may wind up losing the Senate even in the unlikely event of a Trump victory.

Ironically, politics may still be a source of volatility––just not from the United States Today, I see a greater potential for volatility emanating from Europe. Populism is now starting to infect northern Europe. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel’s center-right CDU party lost a key state election to both the Socialists and the new right Alt Party. In Austria, a far right candidate is leading in polls for the presidency. In southern Europe, the Italian prime minister is facing a critical referendum which may determine his and his party’s fate, while Spain is still struggling to form a government. Finally, both Germany and France are facing national elections next year with insurgent, populist parties on the rise.

In short, politics may very well disrupt markets, but the shock may not be made in America.

Russ Koesterich, CFA, is Head of Asset Allocation for BlackRock’s Global Allocation team and is a regular contributor to The Blog.

This post originally appeared on The BlackRock Blog. For ongoing coverage of the investing landscape during this year’s U.S. elections season, visit BlackRock.com’s Preparing for the Election page. 

Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of September 2016 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.

©2016 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. iSHARES and BLACKROCK are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

USR-10260

This article is from BlackRock and is being posted with BlackRock’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or BlackRock and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10848




1 2 3 4 5 2 1170

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