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Technical Analysis

Key Charts (Gold, Dollar, Oil and more) heading into Friday's open with Dan Gramza


Dan Gramza takes a look at some key charts heading into Friday's open, including gold, oil and the dollar.

 

This Daily Market Studies are presented by an unaffiliated third party and Interactive Brokers LLC does not create the content of these presentations. You should review the contents of each presentation and make your own judgment as to whether the content is appropriate for you. Interactive Brokers LLC does not provide recommendations or advice. This presentation is not an advertisement or solicitation for new customers. It is intended only as an educational presentation.

This video is from Dan Gramza and is being posted with Dan Gramza’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Dan Gramza and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13908




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (July 21)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed mixed, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3237.98 points. The A-shares stocks fluctuated all day with decreasing trading volume. Retails and Food& Beverage sectors led the gains; while Non-bank Financial and Bank sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 443.7bn, down 11.78% dod.

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3237.98

-0.21

221.96

4.33

Shenzhen

10364.82

-0.02

222.14

1.84

CSI 300

3728.60

-0.51

141.43

12.64

ChiNext

1690.15

0.09

40.98

-13.86

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Retails

600755

Food& Beverage

600702

Downward-leading

Non-bank Financial

601318

Bank

603323

 

NEWS

*115 Chinese firms on Fortune Global 500 list 2017. Chinese firms filled an unprecedented 115 places on the Fortune Global 500 list for 2017, a 14th-straight-year that the country's firms have increased their presence on the list. The U.S. retail giant Wal-Mart topped the list. China's State Grid and oil giant Sinopec Corp. were second and third, with revenue reaching 315 billion U.S. dollars and 268 billion dollars, respectively, in 2016. Ten Chinese firms hit the list for the first time including Anbang Insurance Group, and Internet service giants Alibaba and Tencent. Country Garden was the only real-estate developer. (Xinhua)

*China agrees to expand trade in services with U.S. China agreed to expand bilateral trade in services with the United States during the first China-U.S. Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) concluded on Wednesday. "Despite a huge deficit in services trade with the United States, China nevertheless believed that trade in services between China and the United States is mutually beneficial, and is willing to engage in mutually-beneficial and win-win cooperation in trade in services," a Chinese delegate to the one-day talks said Thursday in a statement to Xinhua. (Xinhua)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 

 


13907




Technical Analysis

Cocoa (CC) Gravitating Towards Key 2000 Resistance Level


Cocoa (CC) edged higher yesterday, consolidating after Wednesday's rally, and may see more profittaking today before trying to resume the 2 week rally early next week.  Significantly, CC continues to appear to be forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders on the weekly chart, although admittedly, the final shoulder has been lower than expected.  Nevertheless, CC is gravitating towards the 2000 whole figure level, a break above which should quickly pave the way for testing the gently downsloping resistance line (on the daily chart).  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for early next week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

 

Cocoa (ICE CC Sep17) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on BTC/USD, ETH/USD

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


13906




Macro

European Market Outlook: RBA Push Back on Hawkish Market; RIsk Off in Asia


Morning Briefing July 21st 2017


Friday sees a quieter end to the week, although the UK public sector finance data will be an early stand out feature.

The UK data gets us underway at 0830GMT, with the publication of the June finance data.

Borrowing data for June, the third month of the 2017-18 financial year, will be published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) on Friday. In such early stages of the financial year it is usually very difficult to draw any meaningful inferences on the state of public finances.

A month prior, in May, borrowing (PSNB-Ex) came in stg0.3bn lower than in May 2016 at stg6.7bn, with stg2.6bn worth of central government receipts and a stg0.9bn reduction in local authority borrowing together offsetting a stg3.3bn rise in central government spending.

Improvements in the budget deficit versus levels a year ago, however, appears to have come to an end. Cumulative borrowing in the April and May this year has come in almost identical to that of borrowing in April and May last year.

Furthermore, preliminary findings of an MNI poll of analysts point towards PSNB-ex narrowing to stg4.8bn in June, equal to the June 2016 result.

Across the Atlantic, the calendar gets underway at 1230GMT, with the release of the Canadian CPI data and the Canadian retail sales numbers.

At 1400GMT, the US BLS State Employment data will cross the wires.

The last releases of note come mid-afternoon, with the publication of the regular St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast at 1500GMT and the NY Fed GDP Nowcast at 1515GMT.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 down 51.68 points at 20091.14 - ASX 200 down 18.851 points at 5741.2 - Shanghai Comp. down 8.177 points at 3236.225 - JGB 10-Yr future up 4 ticks at 150.18, JGB 10-Yr yield down 0.4bp at 0.074% - Aussie 3-Yr future up 8 ticks at 98.01, Aussie 3-Yr yield down 8.1bp at 2.008%
- Aussie 10-Yr future up 6 ticks at 97.31, Aussie 10-Yr yield down 5.4bp at 2.683% - US 10-Yr future up 1 tick at 126.03+, US 10-Yr yield down 0.18bp at 2.2571%

US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries ended Thurs mainly higher, front end flat after a choppy day of two-way trading, then selling after a weak $13B 10Y TIPS auction. Tsys rose early NY with German Bunds, as ECB kept rates unchanged, kept commitment to increase QE program size/time.

US EURODLR FUTURES: Quiet in Asia trade, coming off lows of yesterday's session. Politics the main driver after Special Counsel Mueller said that the scope of the Trump/Russia investigation was widening.

AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie bonds jump as RBA's Debelle says that there is no significance in board discussing the neutral rate estimate, adds that other central banks hiking does not mean the RBA will raise the cash rate (essentially a repeat of RBA comment from 2 weeks ago). - Aussie bonds futures jump to session highs, yields drop, 3-Year yield now down 8bp on the session at 2.009%, curve steepens.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks went into the lunch break in negative territory, the Nikkei 225 down 51.02 at 20,093.57. Japanese stocks are on track for a decline after two days of gains. The decline is being blamed on the gain in the yen, markets sold US dollar and sought safety of the yen after special counsel Mueller said the scope of the Trump/Russia investigation was being widened. USD/JPY is last at 111.93 after a fall from session highs of 112.40 yesterday.

OIL: Oil is broadly flat in Asia-Pac trade, WTI last down $0.01 at $46.91 holding near session lows hit at end of the US session yesterday after dropping from highs around $47.74 on some lingering effects of inventory data showing draws in crude stocks. - Oil is likely to see nervy trade ahead of the OPEC/Non-OPEC monitoring meeting between July 22-24.

GOLD: Gold is slightly higher in Asia-Pac trade to end the week, the yellow metal last trades up $1 at $1,245.49. It has been fairly lazy, rangebound trade for gold after a jump on the news that special counsel Mueller said the scope of the Trump/Russia investigation was being widened. - Gold is being supported in the session as the US dollar continues to languish near recent lows, last at 94.304 after falling from around 95.167 yesterday. Some of the gain is being attributed to the ECB keeping policy on hold, though Draghi failed to dissuade markets of his positive outlook in the press conference with EUR/USD holding above 1.16. - Gold is currently up 1.35% on the week, and on track for its longest stretch of gains in 2-months.

FOREX: The Australian dollar took centre stage in the Asia-Pacific region, in a speech from RBA's Debelle, the Deputy Governor said, Australian rates do not have to rise in line with global peers and there was no significance in the RBA Board discussing neutral rate at their July meeting. After trading in a pre-speech range of $0.7920 to $0.7959, Aussie-dollar was pummelled lower from $0.7936 to $0.7875 in double-quick time and was last at $0.7888. Elsewhere, the dollar broadly consolidated against its peers, with currency pairs held to narrow ranges. Dollar-yen held a Y111.81 to Y112.07 range last at Y111.96. Euro-dollar trekked between $1.1619 to $1.1637, last at $1.1630. Cable managed to carve out a $1.2954 to $1.2978 range and was last at $1.2963.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (U17) 161.47-54 Support Key

*RES 4: 163.08 100-DMA
*RES 3: 162.68 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: 162.60 High June 30
*RES 1: 162.14 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.97

*SUP 1: 161.54 Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: 161.47 Hourly support July 18
*SUP 3: 161.24 Low July 18
*SUP 4: 161.02 Low July 13    

*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge on dips, this time around the daily bull channel base, only to be capped by the 21-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to add support to their case and above 162.60 to shift focus to key DMAs 163.08-31. Bears still need a close below 161.47 to confirm a break of the channel base, easing bullish pressure and shifting initial focus back to 161.02.

 

EUROSTOXX50: Rejected Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: 3548.07 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: 3539.48 High July 13
*RES 2: 3528.99 High July 20
*RES 1: 3508.90 Hourly support July 20 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3499.49

*SUP 1: 3469.62 Low July 18
*SUP 2: 3460.64 Low July 11
*SUP 3: 3435.29 Low July 6
*SUP 4: 3434.53 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The rally Thursday lacked follow through with the index rejected above the 100-DMA and ahead of key resistance layers 3539.48-3555.37 where the daily bear channel top and 55-DMA (3553.20) are situated. Bulls need a close above 3555.37 to reconfirm a bullish bias and above 3615.06 to focus on 2017 highs. The 3460.64-3469.62 support region is now key with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to 3435.29.

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13905




Stocks

'Fake News, Fake Moves' not in Equity Markets


Despite all the rhetoric that can best be associated with “fake news”, the stock market has yet to produce “fake moves”. Historically fake moves are often associated with a narrowing of breadth and the ever so apparent “cult stocks”. While arguably we have some degree of this (e.g. FANG stocks), we continue to believe breadth is much better than what the naysayers’ emit. In fact, while breadth is deteriorating in areas of the economy that are often associated as a tax on the consumer--Energy, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials--areas associated with growth and end product demand--Technology, Healthcare, Manufacturing and Financial--are showing improving breadth and technical patterns. Below we outline market characteristics supporting this view.

  • Healthy internals: The Russell 3000 continues to march upward and is supported by healthy internals as the advance/decline line is hitting all-time highs.
     
  • Defensive areas of the market are losing favor: Relative strength in these historically defensive areas are hitting new lows and as such indicate investor’s optimism towards growth and a favorable economy.
     
  • Healthcare continues to show a pulse: Our Health Care Sector is improving and, with legislation on the way, is becoming leadership, joining their higher beta brethren, Biotechs. The IBB and XBI have broken through major resistance levels.
     
  • Small vs. large caps: Small caps are not breaking down vs. large caps, but neither are they significantly outperforming. Considering what we outlined above, small-caps deserve more attention.
     
  • Interest Rates: Rates have rebounded over the last few weeks to once again break above their respective 200-day moving averages. We expect rates to stay trading range bound between 2.17% and 2.61%. We believe the path to re-inflate will continue, and the pace at which rates rise, if too fast, may negatively impact affect emerging markets.
     
  • US Dollar: The dollar continues to show signs of weakness and is nearing major support at the 93-94 level

Learn more about Vermilion and get a Free Trial of their research on TWS.

About Us

David Nicoski, CMT is Vermilion’s Chief Investment Strategist and is responsible for managing the firm’s research products and investment recommendations. David Nicoski was previously a Principal and Senior Technical Analyst in the Technical Research department of a global investment bank and has more than 20 years of technical research experience.  Mr. Nicoski attended college at the University of Minnesota in the Applied Business Program and the Carlson School of Management. Mr. Nicoski holds a Chartered Market Technician designation and is a member of the Market Technician’s Association.

John Betz, CMT is a Global Technical Strategist for Vermilion and has oversight and responsibility for managing the firm’s international research products and technical strategy. John joined Vermilion in 2008 and is currently a candidate for the CFA designation.

John graduated from St. Thomas University with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration with a major in finance. John holds a Chartered Market Technician designation and is a member of the Market Technician’s Association and the CFA Institute.

Vermilion Research was founded in 2006 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Vermilion’s research team has a combined 80 year of experience in the analysis and management of investment securities.

Disclaimer: The information contained herein is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any unauthorized disclosure distribution, dissemination or copying of this material or any attachment is strictly prohibited; such information, whether derived from Vermilion Vermilion Capital Management, LLC or from any oral or written communication by way of opinion, advice, or otherwise with a principal of the company is not warranted in any manner whatsoever, is for the use of our customers only and may be obtained from internal and external research sources considered to be reliable. It is not necessarily complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed by Vermilion Capital Management, LLC, its operating entity or the principals therein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any future or security referred to in Vermilion research publications. Principals of Vermilion Capital Management, LLC may or may not hold, or be short of, securities discussed herein, or of any other securities, at any time. The foregoing also expressly applies to any trial subscription.

This article is from Vermilion Capital Management, LLC and is being posted with Vermilion Capital Management, LLC’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Vermilion Capital Management, LLC and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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1 2 3 4 5 2 998

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